A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
